Glenn Shafer - Selected Bibliography

Books

A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press, 1976.

Readings in Uncertain Reasoning (with Judea Pearl). Morgan Kaufmann, 1990.

Probabilistic Expert Systems. SIAM, 1996.

The Art of Causal Conjecture. MIT Press, 1996.

Articles

A theory of statistical evidence. Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, Vol. II, pp. 365-436. W. L. Harper and C. A. Hooker, eds., Reidel. 1976.

Non-additive probabilities in the work of Bernoulli and Lambert. Archive for History of Exact Sciences 19 309-370. 1978.

Allocations of probability. Annals of Probability 7 827-839. 1979.

Reliability described by belief functions (with A. M. Breipohl). Proceedings 1979 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, IEEE, pp. 23-27. 1981.

Constructive probability. Synthese 48 1-60. 1981.

Jeffrey's rule of conditioning. Philosophy of Science 48 337-363. 1981.

Two theories of probability, PSA 1978, Vol. 2, pp. 441-464. Peter D. Asquith and Ian Hacking, eds. Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan. 1981.

Lindley's paradox (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 325-351. 1982.

Belief functions and parametric models (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 44 322-352. 1982.

Bayes's two arguments for the rule of conditioning. Annals of Statistics 10 1075-1089. 1982.

Belief functions. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 1 209. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1982.

The Bernoullis. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 1 214-219. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1982.

Adjusting P-values to account for selection over dichotomies (with Ingram Olkin). Journal of the American Statistical Association 78 674-678. 1983.

A subjective interpretation of conditional probability. Journal of Philosophical Logic 12 453-466. 1983.

Johann Heinrich Lambert. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 4 466-468. S. Kotz and N.L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Miller's paradox. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 5 502-503. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Moral certainty. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 5 623-624. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Nonadditive probability. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 6 271-276. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Languages and designs for probability judgment (with Amos Tversky). Cognitive Science 9 309-339. 1985. Reprinted in Decision Making, edited by David Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, Cambridge University Press, 1988, pp. 237-265.

Hierarchical evidence. Proceedings of the Second Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications, Miami Beach, December 11-13, 1985, pp. 16-21. IEEE Computer Society Press.

Conditional probability (with discussion). International Statistical Review 53 261-277. 1985.

Propagating belief functions with local computations (with Prakash Shenoy). IEEE Expert 1:3 43-52. 1986.

The combination of evidence. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 1 155-179. 1986.

Probability judgment in artificial intelligence. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 127-135. J. F. Lemmer and L. N. Kanal, eds., North-Holland. 1986.

Savage revisited (with discussion). Statistical Science 1 463-501. 1986. Reprinted in Decision Making, edited by David Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, Cambridge University Press, 1988, pp. 193-234.

The construction of probability arguments (with discussion). Boston University Law Review 66 799-823. 1986. Reprinted in Probability and Inference in the Law of Evidence, edited by Peter Tillers, Kluwer, 1988, pp. 185-204.

Probability judgment in artificial intelligence and expert systems (with discussion). Statistical Science 23-44. 1987.

Belief functions and possibility measures. The Analysis of Fuzzy Information, Vol. 1: Mathematics and Logic, pp. 51-84. James C. Bezdek, ed., CRC Press. 1987.

Implementing Dempster's rule for hierarchical evidence (with Roger Logan). Artificial Intelligence 33 272-298. 1987.

Propagating belief functions in qualitative Markov trees (with Prakash Shenoy and Khaled Mellouli). International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 1 349-400. 1987.

Modifiable combining functions (with Paul Cohen and Prakash Shenoy). AI EDAM (Artificial Intelligence for Engineering Design, Analysis, and Manufacturing) 1 47-57. 1987.

Qualitative Markov networks (with Khaled Mellouli and Prakash Shenoy). Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, B. Bouchon and R. R. Yager, eds, pp. 69-74. Springer-Verlag. 1987.

Saint Petersburg paradox. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 8 865-870. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1988.

Sharp null hypotheses. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 8 433-436. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1988.

Propagation of belief functions: A distributed approach (with Prakash Shenoy and Khaled Mellouli). Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 325-335. J. F. Lemmer and L. N. Kanal, eds. North-Holland. 1988.

Evidential reasoning using DELIEF (with Debra Zarley and Yen-Teh Hsia). AAAI-88; Proceedings of the Seventh National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 205-209. 1988.

AUDITOR'S ASSISTANT: A knowledge-engineering tool for audit decisions (with Prakash Shenoy and Rajendra Srivastava). Proceedings of the 1988 Touche-Ross/ University of Kansas Symposium, pp. 61-84. 1988.

An axiomatic framework for Bayesian and belief-function propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 307-314, Minneapolis, MN, 1988.

The unity of probability. Pp. 95-126 of Acting Under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, edited by George von Furstenberg, Kluwer (Boston), 1990.

Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 4 323-362. 1990.

The Bayesian and belief-function formalisms: A general perspective for auditing (with Rajendra Srivastava and with discussion). Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory, Volume 9 Supplement, 110-148, 1990.

Probability propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 2 327-352. 1990.

Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 4, pp. 169-198. R. D. Shachter, T. S. Levitt, L. N. Kanal, and J. F. Lemmer, eds. North-Holland, 1990.

The unity and diversity of probability (with discussion). Statistical Science 5 435-462. 1990.

Why should statisticians be interested in artificial intelligence? Pp. 16-58 of Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business, University of Kansas, June 1-2, 1990, edited by Steven Hillmer and Lawrence A. Sherr.

What is probability? In Perspectives on Contemporary Statistics, edited by David C. Hoaglin and David S. Moore. Mathematical Association of America, MAA Notes Number 21, pp. 93-105. 1992.

Belief-function formulas for audit risk (with Rajendra P. Srivastava). The Accounting Review 67 249-283. 1992.

The Dempster-Shafer theory. Pp. 330-331 of Encyclopedia of Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition, Stuart C. Shapiro, editor. Wiley. 1992.

Can the various meanings of probability be reconciled? Pp. 165-196 of A Handbook for Data Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences: Methodological Issues, edited by Gideon Keren and Charles Lewis. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, New Jersey, 1993.

The early development of mathematical probability. Pp. 1293-1302 of Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences, edited by I. Grattan-Guinness. Routledge, London, 1993.

Integrating statistical and non-statistical audit evidence using belief functions: A case of variable sampling (with Rajendra P. Srivastava). International Journal of Intelligent Systems 9 519-539. 1994.

The subjective aspect of probability. Pp. 53-73 of Subjective Probability, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Wiley, 1994.

Propagating beliefs in AND-trees (with Rajendra P. Srivastava and Prakash P. Shenoy). International Journal of Intelligent Systems 10 647-664. 1995.

Philosophical foundations for causal networks. Pp. 3-12 of Advances in Intelligent Computing, edited by Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier, Ronald R. Yager, and Lotfi A. Zadeh. Springer Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 945. 1995.

The significance of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi for the philosophy of probability today. Journal of Econometrics. 75 15-32. 1996.

Causal relevance. Pp. 187-208 of Reasoning with Uncertainty in Robotics, edited by Leo Dorst, Michiel van Lambalgen, and Frans Voorbraak. Springer Verlag, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 1093. 1996.

Vanishing tetrad differences and model structure (with Alexander Kogan and Peter Spirtes). International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 4 209-224. 1996.

The situation of causality. Foundations of Science 1 543-563. 1996.

Lindley's paradox. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, P. Armitage and T. Colton, eds., Wiley. 1997.

A logic of action, causality, and the temporal relations of events (with Richard Scherl). Pp. 89-96 of the Proceedings of the Fifth International Workshop on Temporal Representation and Reasoning (Time-98), edited by Lina Khatib and Robert Morris. Los Alamitos, Calif.: IEEE Computer Society. 1998

Mathematical foundations for probability and causality. Pp. 207-270 of Mathematical Aspects of Artificial Intelligence, edited by Frederick Hoffman. American Mathematical Society, Symposia in Applied Mathematics, Volume 55. 1998.

Causal logic. Pp. 711-719 of Proceedings of the 13^th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI-98), edited by Henri Prade. Chichester: Wiley. 1998.

Causal conjecture. In Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management, edited by Alex Gammerman. Springer. 1999.

Book Reviews

Review of The Emergence of Probability, by Ian Hacking. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71 519-521. 1976.

Review of I. J. Bienaymé: Statistical Theory Anticipated, by C. C. Heyde and E. Seneta, ISIS 70 329. 1979.

Review of The Enterprise of Knowledge, by Isaac Levi. Technometrics 24 164-165. 1982.

Review of Statistical Decision Theory, by James O. Berger. Psychometrika 47 119. 1982.

Review of Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79 223-224. 1984.

Review of Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, edited by M. Allais and O. Hagen. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79 224-225. 1984.

Review of Faces of Science, by V. V. Nalimov. Technometrics 26 292. 1984.

Review of Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis, by Larry V. Hedges and Ingram Olkin. American Scientist 75 438. 1987.

Review of The Empire of Chance, by Gerd Gigerenzer et al. Science 247 225. 1990.

Review of The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820-1900, by Theodore M. Porter. Annals of Science 47 207-209. 1990.

Review of Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets, and Decision Analysis, edited by R. M. Oliver and J. Q. Smith. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87 585-586. 1992.

Review of Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, by Judea Pearl, Representing and Reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge: A Logical Approach to Probabilities, by Fahiem Bacchus, and Causation, Prediction, and Search, by Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines. Synthese. 104 161-176. 1995.

Review of Creating Modern Probability, by Jan von Plato. Annals of Probability. 26 416-424. 1998.

Review of Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: A Mathematical, Philosophical, and Historical Introduction, by Frank Lad. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1999.

Other Contributions

Comment on "Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability," by D. V. Lindley. International Statistical Review 50 18-19. 1982.

Comment on "Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated?" by L. J. Cohen. The Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 508-509. 1983.

Comment on "Combining probability distributions," by C. Genest and J. V. Zidek. Statistical Science 1 135-137. 1986.

Comment on "A diagrammatic approach to evidence," by R. D. Friedman. Boston University Law Review 66 629-633. 1986.

Comment on "An inquiry into computer understanding," by Peter Cheeseman. Computational Intelligence 4 121-124. 1988.

Comment on "Integration of Two Kinds of Expertise," by B. Chandrasekaran and Jesse Dillard. Auditor Productivity in the Year 2000; 1987 Proceedings of the Arthur Young Professors' Roundtable. Andrew Bailey, ed., pp. 121-128. 1988.

Comment on "Local computation with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems," by S. L. Lauritzen and D. J. Spiegelhalter. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 50 214. 1988.

Rejoinder to comments on "Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions." International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 6 445-480. 1992.

Foreword to Advances in the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, edited by Ronald R. Yager, Janusz Kacprzyk, and Mario Fedrizzi. Wiley, 1993.

Comment on "A logic of probability, with applications to the foundations of statistics," by V. G. Vovk, Journal of the Royal Statistics Society, Series B 55. 1993.

Advances in the understanding and use of conditional independence. (Introduction to a collection of articles.) Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 21 1-11. 1998.